The El Paso Times reports that a report from the US Joint Forces Command warns that Mexico could face a ‘sudden collapse’, with the assessment placing Mexico on the same footing as Pakistan in that regard. The article quotes from the USJFC’s Joint Operating Environment 2008 report:
In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.
Outlining the pressure put on the government and the society by criminal gangs and drug cartels, it points out the obvious implications to the US:
Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.
Let’s hope that for the sake of the many good people in Mexico that this does not happen; the military just needs to plan for things that could happen.
This possible scenario has potential implications to another current debate: imagine how hard it would be to deny permanent resident status to refugees.